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2019’s forecast is very warm for the country along with rosy US economic predictions, and Florida’s spring/summer housing market is heating up fast.
While the Miami housing market leads the way admidst 6 consecutive years of price growth, the Florida market overall is doing well.
According to Zillow, home prices have risen 9.6% over the last year to the current average of 223,200, and they predict a further increase of 6.1% in 2019. Listings are down and homes are selling faster. DOM has dropped fast to 84 which is still far higher than other states. Listings with a price cut have increased sharply this spring and summer.
They give a 9.0/10 rating for Florida’s real estate market health. Homes with negative equity is 9.8% of owners which is slightly less than the national average. The state has a higher than average mortgage delinquency rate of 1.9%.
Demand is strong. Sales of single-family houses rose 0.8% to 28,071 in May 2018 compared to compared to May 2017. Median sales price for single-family existing homes was $255,000, up 6.7%. For all home types, price rose 6.7% sales totaled 12,012 last month, up 4.1% compared to a year ago. Condos are receiving 97.5% of listing price.
Total property listings have risen 4.8% in the last month, and are up 3.5% from last year according to the Florida Realtors Association.
Listing prices are down 19% for the 100k to $150k home price range while up 17% for the $300 to $400k home price range and up 16.7% for homes above $1 million. Year over year prices are well up for any home above $200k.
The condo market in most US cities is hot in spring, but especially so in South Florida and Miami Dade. Foreclosures/REO, and Short Sales are down signalling the Florida condo market is healthy.
The Orlando/Kissimmee/Sanford housing market saw prices jump 10% while sales grew 8%. Sadly inventory dropped by 11% YoY (year over year). The median price for single-family homes sold in Orlando in April rose 9.4% YoY to $257,000. The median price for Orlando condos increased 20.4% to $130,000, substantially more than condos in Miami. One report has it that only a 1.3 months of supply of single-family homes listed at below $2000,000 is available.
The Tampa Sarasota Housing Market is hot. It ranks 6th in loan applications from those ready to move. According to Zillow, the median home value in Tampa is $209,200. Property prices have risen 14.7% YoY. Zillow predicts they’ll rise 9.7% within the next 12 months.
The median price of Tampa homes is $299,900 while the median price of homes that sold is $238,400. The issue is the price mismatch between prospective buyers and those wishing to sell.
As mortgage rates rise and loan qualification gets tougher, while prices rise, first time homebuyers are in for a struggle to buy in the Orlando, Tampa areas.
The doomsday people are always calling for housing crashes and stock market crashes. We will see higher oil and gasoline prices and housing prices should continue upward for 5 more years.
The housing market in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Panama City, Sarasota, Naples, Fort Launderdale, and even Boca Raton are compelling real estate investment value propositions for snowbirds and other buyers in North America.
Interest in buying Florida properties is persistent and given the strength of the Florida economy, and tax situaton in the sunshine state, and an aging population, we should see strong prices for many years. The recent tax changes may discourage speculative investment but speculators may consider Florida cities some of the best in the nation.
The Florida housing market in 2017 was characterized by a lack of new construction, big price reductions on new condos, a disappearance of South American property buyers, softened house and condo prices, and of course, low taxation rates. If the glut of condo building in Miami is now complete, then we may see upward pressure on condo prices.